![]() ![]() We find that the supply chain effects of import tariffs account for a substantial portion of the 2018-2019 slowdown in US exports. The importance of these supply chains means that tariffs on imports can, in turn, hurt export performance. (2019) find that when firms discussed tariffs and policy uncertainty on earnings calls in recent years, the primary concern cited was their supply chains. These cross-border supply linkages are a potentially important channel for measuring the impact of import tariffs, because they can amplify shocks to trade costs and demand across locations (Almunia et al. Lower trade costs and new communications technology (Baldwin 2016) mean that global supply chains are now a pervasive feature of world trade (Hummels et al. Since then, however, globalisation has transformed the structure of world trade. By August of 2019, $290 billion of US imports – about 12% of the total – were subject to an average tariff increase of 24 percentage points.1 The scale of these tariffs against specific products and countries, and the subsequent retaliation, has drawn comparisons to the Depression-era tariff wars of the 1930s.2
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